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library(tidyverse)
library(forecast)
library(xts)
library(prophet)
library(nixtlar)This post is a first look at Nixtla’s TimeGPT generative, pre-trained transformer for time series forecasting using the nixtlar R package.
As described in Garza et al. (2021), TimeGPT is a Transformer-based time series model with self-attention mechanisms. The architecture comprises an encoder-decoder structure with multiple layers, each with residual connections and layer normalization. The encoder, a stack of multi-head self-attention layers followed by a feed-forward neural network, processes the input time series. The decoder, which is similar to the encoder, generates the forecast. The decoder includes an additional multi-head attention layer that takes the encoder’s output as input. The model is trained using a teacher-forcing strategy, where the decoder receives the ground-truth values during training. The model is then used for forecasting by feeding the model’s predictions back as input during inference.
Nixtla’s website provides a considerable amount of explanatory material, documentation, and code examples in Python. The nixtlar package wraps the Python code to provide an R interface. The package documentation for version 0.6.2 doesn’t fully the R functions, but the vignettes provide sufficient code examples to get started.
Before getting started with TimeGPT, you will have to register for an API key. The process is easy enough and is described in this vignette.
The Data
The electricity dataset included in the nixtlar package contains hourly observations of electricity consumption generated sourced from the PJM Interconnection LLC, a regional transmission organization that is part of the Eastern Interconnection grid in the United States. There are five different time series with data taken from 2012 to 2018. A look at the data frame shows that the various series do not cover the same time periods.
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df <- nixtlar::electricity
df_wide <- df |>
pivot_wider(names_from = unique_id, values_from = y)
head(df_wide)# A tibble: 6 × 6
ds BE DE FR NP PJM
<chr> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
1 2016-10-22 00:00:00 70 NA 54.7 NA NA
2 2016-10-22 01:00:00 37.1 NA 51.2 NA NA
3 2016-10-22 02:00:00 37.1 NA 48.9 NA NA
4 2016-10-22 03:00:00 44.8 NA 45.9 NA NA
5 2016-10-22 04:00:00 37.1 NA 41.2 NA NA
6 2016-10-22 05:00:00 35.6 NA 41.4 NA NAPlots indicate that all of the series show periods of considerable volatility. The BE, DE, and FR series appear to be stationary. NP trends upward to the right, and the PJM series appears to be nonlinear.
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df2 <- df |> mutate(time = as.POSIXct(ds, format = "%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S")) |>
group_by(unique_id)
p <- df2 |> ggplot(aes(x = time, y = y, color = unique_id)) +
geom_line() + facet_wrap( ~ unique_id, scales = "free")
p
TimeGPT Forecsts
I’ll begin by showing off the nixtlar forecasting function, which can handle multiple time series by forecasting eight hours ahead using all of the data. The parameter h specifies the number of steps ahead to forecast, and level specifies the confidence level for the forecast.
Here is the built-in nixtlar plot function.
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nixtla_client_plot(df, nixtla_client_fcst, max_insample_length = 200)
This plot uses ggplot2to focus in on the forecasts.
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# nixtla_client_fcst <- nixtla_client_forecast(df, h = 8, level = c(80,95))
# saveRDS(nixtla_client_fcst, "nixtla_client_fcst.rds")
nixtla_client_fcst <- readRDS("nixtla_client_fcst.rds")
ncf_df <- nixtla_client_fcst |> mutate(time = as.POSIXct(ds, format = "%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S")) |> group_by(unique_id)
names(ncf_df) <- c("unique_id", "ds", "TimeGPT", "lon", "loe", "hie", "hin")
pf <- ncf_df |> ggplot(aes(x = ds, y = TimeGPT, color = unique_id)) +
geom_line() +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lon, ymax = hin),
linetype = 2,
alpha = 0.1) +
facet_wrap( ~ unique_id, scales = "free")
pf
For the rest of this post, I’ll work only with the BE data and do some simple back testing. I will split the data into a training set and a test set containing 24 hours worth of observations. Then, I’ll fit established time series forecasting models and compare how well they do vis-a-vis the actual data and with each other. Note, I will not attempt any tuning of these models. This will make it a fair, “out-of-the-box” comparison.
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NF <- 24
BE_df_wide <- df |> pivot_wider(names_from = unique_id, values_from = y) |>
select(ds, BE) |> drop_na()
BE_train_df <- BE_df_wide %>% filter(row_number() <= n() - NF)
BE_test_df <- tail(BE_df_wide, NF)
BE_train_df <- BE_train_df |> rename(y = BE) |> mutate(unique_id = "BE")
BE_test_df <- BE_test_df |> rename(y = BE)The nixtla_client_forecast() function is the main nixtlar forecasting function. (I have already run this function and saved the results RDS file in order not to make an API call every time the code is run during the blog building process.)
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# nixtla_fcst <- nixtla_client_forecast(BE_train_df, h = NF, level = 95)
# saveRDS(nixtla_fcst, "nixtla_fcst.rds")
nixtla_fcst <- readRDS("nixtla_fcst.rds")
names(nixtla_fcst) <- c("unique_id", "ds", "TimeGPT", "lo95", "up95")Here, I create a data frame to hold the actual and forecast values.
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fcst_df <- tail(nixtla_fcst, NF) |> select(ds, TimeGPT) |>
rename(time = ds, tgpt_fcst = TimeGPT) |>
mutate(elec_actual = BE_test_df$y)
head(fcst_df) time tgpt_fcst elec_actual
1 2016-12-30 00:00:00 38.82010 44.30
2 2016-12-30 01:00:00 36.29234 44.30
3 2016-12-30 02:00:00 34.97838 41.26
4 2016-12-30 03:00:00 32.99565 40.62
5 2016-12-30 04:00:00 31.58322 40.07
6 2016-12-30 05:00:00 33.27422 41.02Some Comparative Forecasts
ARIMA Forecast with auto.arima()
The auto.arima() function from the forecast package fits an ARIMA(2,1,1) model. This means two autoregressive terms, one difference and one moving average term.
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arima_train <- BE_train_df |> select(-unique_id) |>
mutate(time = as.POSIXct(ds, format = "%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S"))
arima_train <- arima_train |> select(-ds)
elec_ts <- as.xts(arima_train)
arima_fcst <- elec_ts |>
auto.arima() |>
# number of periods to forecast
forecast(h = NF , level = 95)Exponential Smoothing Forecast with ets()
Because I have provided no guidance, the ets() function from the forecast package fits an ETS(A,A,N) model with an additive error, an additive trend and no seasonality. All parameters are estimated from the data.
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ets_fcst <- elec_ts |>
ets() |>
# number of periods to forecast
forecast(h = NF)Prophet Forecast
I also ask the prophet() function from the prophet package for an automatic fit using the default parameters. Among other things, this means a linear growth curve with additive seasonality and automatic estimates for daily seasonality. As above, the model is fit to the data in the BE_train_df data frame, but here, the make_future_dataframe() function creates a data frame with the same structure as BE_train_df but with the ds column extended by NF periods.
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prophet_fit <- prophet(BE_train_df)
future <- make_future_dataframe(
prophet_fit,
periods = NF,
freq = 3600,
include_history = FALSE
)
prophet_fcst <- predict(prophet_fit, future)Results and Discussion
Before plotting, let’s have a look at the wide data frame that holds the forecasts.
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fcst_df2 <- fcst_df |>
mutate(
arima_fcst = as.vector(arima_fcst$mean),
ets_fcst = as.vector(ets_fcst$mean),
prophet_fcst = prophet_fcst$yhat
)
head(fcst_df2) time tgpt_fcst elec_actual arima_fcst ets_fcst prophet_fcst
1 2016-12-30 00:00:00 38.82010 44.30 46.60606 43.10791 32.09818
2 2016-12-30 01:00:00 36.29234 44.30 47.83980 42.33006 29.78621
3 2016-12-30 02:00:00 34.97838 41.26 48.52490 41.70778 22.70913
4 2016-12-30 03:00:00 32.99565 40.62 48.90180 41.20996 15.90205
5 2016-12-30 04:00:00 31.58322 40.07 49.10927 40.81171 15.67207
6 2016-12-30 05:00:00 33.27422 41.02 49.22347 40.49310 23.59276Then, shape the data into long format and plot.
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fcst_dft2_long <- fcst_df2 %>%
pivot_longer(!time, names_to = "method", values_to = "mean")
q <- fcst_dft2_long |>
ggplot(aes(
x = time,
y = mean,
group = method,
color = method
)) +
geom_line() +
geom_point() +
ggtitle("TimeGPT vs ARIMA vs ETS vs Prophet vs actual data")
q
It is obvious that the TimeGPT forecast looks quite good. I don’t think this is a big surprise, given that the Nixtla folks chose the electricity data set to show off their transformer. However, it is curious, that except for one point, the TimeGPT forecast is lower than the actual data. It is also interesting that some of the forecasts that are farther out are a better match to the actual data than the forecasts for the initial forecast points.
The “no thought” prophet model does a pretty good job, but it does seem to have overacted to the downward trends at the beginning and end of the forecast period. My guess is that with a little tuning prophet could do much better.
The ARIMA model is a bit of a disappointment. I would have expected it to follow some of the twists and turns. At first glance, the exponential smoothing forecast appears to be exceptional! It tracks the actual data quite closely for the first six forecast points. Could it be that time series forecasting peaked in 1956? If you play with the data a little, I think you will find that, in this case, the close fit of the exponential smoothing model is a combination of randomness and the phenomenon of a stopped clock being right twice a day.
It also appears as if the exponential smoothing and ARIMA models flipped a coin at the beginning of the forecast to decide who takes the high road and who gets the low road but then tracked each other all the way through. However, if you ask the models to forecast only the last eight data points, you will see that ARIMA model is on the high road.
It is also worth noting that choosing the best forecast also depends on the objectives of the modeling effort. For example, one could be more interested in a forecast that shows seasonal patterns rather than overall accuracy over some number of forecast periods. The following table shows the root mean square error (rms) for the four different models computed over 8, 16, and 24 forecast periods along with their overall means.
We see that TimeGPT does best at both accuracy and tracking the data, but that both ARIMA and ETS show better accuracy than prophet.
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rms <- read.csv("rms.csv")
rms fcst_periods tpgt arima ets prophet
1 8 3.342365 7.741460 5.256222 15.97618
2 16 4.545948 9.129550 7.199374 13.15787
3 24 6.601751 7.123968 13.636910 14.94871
4 mean 4.830021 7.998326 8.697502 14.69425Some Final Thoughts
It is clear that the TimeGPT model has upped the game for black-box time series forecasting. It is sure to become a powerful tool for doing exploratory work with large time series and comparing and contrasting multiple time series and may become the “go-to” baseline forecasting tool for a wide range of time series. Moreover, I expect that time series experts who can fine-tune prophet and more traditional time series models will be able to develop some intuition about what TimeGPT is doing by assessing its behavior in relation to these models.
I am aware that this little post may have raised more questions than it answered. If so, please try your hand at elaborating on some of the issues raised. We would be very happy to consider your time series posts for publication on R Works.
Finally, for a more sophisticated analysis of these series that deals with their multiseasonality aspects, see the Electricity Load Forecast Tutorial. And, for some ideas about how to harness “ordinary” LLMs for time series forecasting have a look at the second half of the talk that Bryan Lewis gave to nyhackr in April 2024.